Seismac zones in u.s.4/10/2023 First, whenever it was possible, we were collecting opinions of experts. In practical application of PSHA on mining areas, we used the following strategy to model the future seismicity ( Lasocki, 2005, 2009 Lasocki, Orlecka-Sikora, Urban, & Kozłowska, 2011 Lasocki et al., 2012). There can be different ways to model the activity of a future zone by means of possessed information on the zones active in the past. The times of activity of the future zones are deduced from the mining works program the activity will start with the beginning of the works and will last until some half a year after the work termination (e.g., Cichy & Lasocki, 1982). The locations of the future mining works determine the locations of future zones of induced seismicity (e.g., Kozłowska, 2013). In any case, whereas the PSHA problem in natural seismicity is, in fact, the transformation of the gathered seismicity data in the hazard information, the PSHA problem in mining seismicity is the prediction of a future hazard based on past seismicity data and plans of future mining works. For such a zone, we possess some information about its seismicity pattern from the observations from the past before D 1, but we have yet to infer anything about the future. In the best case, we can have a zone associated with the panel whose exploitation has already begun before the time D 1 and will continue also after D 1. Often, these will be the zones associated with mining in panels that are only planned to be excavated in the future. This hazard will result from the seismic zones, which will be active in the future in the period, but which have not been necessarily active yet. For obvious reasons, we are interested in the hazard that is relevant for future time periods. The transience and the time-variability of mining seismicity result in the past and future seismic hazard in the same region being generally different. Because such a seismic process is broadly stationary, these estimations are also valid for anytime in the future. Therefore when approaching the PSHA problem for natural seismicity, one can make use of past information on the seismic process in the region of interest and therefore estimate the target probabilities from this information. Natural tectonic seismic zones have been active and persistent since before the existence of mankind and will continue long into the future. Xia-Ting Feng, in Rockburst, 2018 11.3.2 Modeling the Seismic Activity of a Future Zone
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